Welcome to the Investing for Beginners podcast. In today’s show we discuss:
- Andrew and I discuss Stash and other broker apps
- The different aspects of dividends, such as how a ex-dividend date works
- The impact of 10-Year Treasuries on the stock market
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All right, folks, we’ll welcome Investing for Beginners podcast. Tonight is episode 189 tonight. Andrew and I will read through some great listener questions and do a little give and take and answer some of those. So without any further ado, I will go ahead and read the first question, and then Andrew will go ahead and give us a great answer. Like he always does. So the first question I have is Andrew. I am also an absolute beginner and recent subscriber to the newsletter. Appreciate this post and your podcast. I’ve listened to 40 episodes in the last two weeks, and I plan to keep going until I’m all caught up. I’ve been working from the beginning and the most recent episodes; what’s the difference between opening an individual account with Stash or some other app versus a brokerage account with fidelity Charles Schwab, et cetera, I’m currently paying $1 per month in fees to stash. It seems like a no-brainer to continue, especially since it has drip options, but I’m sure I’m missing something. Thanks, JJ. Andrew, what are your thoughts on JJ is a great question.
It’s an excellent question, and something that, you know, these details are very small, particularly when you’re comparing, you know, what’s the difference between this app and that app, you know, and fidelity has an app. Schwab has an app. Stash has an app. Robinhood has an app. Like it all sounds like it’s all the same thing, but you want to do a little bit of research and understand they’re not all the same thing. And if what happens with the game, stop short, squeeze taught us anything. It’s that, you know, when, when you get involved with certain brokers, things can happen that don’t tend to happen with some of the bigger ones. So let’s talk about first, like the big kind of reputable brokers.
So you have Schwab. I know Dave’s had a great experience with them. I have fidelity. I also have Merrill edge, and I have ally invest, and I’m a really big fan of Fidelity and Merrill edge. And it’s basically because they’re giving you the best. They’re giving you the best experience, and they’re giving you a good price for it. So as an example, everything now is commissioned free. You don’t have to pay for trade. So you can’t compare brokers in that way. Like you used to when I first started, but when it comes to Stash as a perfect example of Stash’s three tiers to their plans, they have a dollar a month, a $3 month, and a $9 a month plan. So JJ, you know, you talk about how you’re on the $1 a month plan, which doesn’t sound like a big deal, but if you’re doing $150 a month, which is what I recommend with the e-letter, as it’s just a very base start to, to get your finances. Your financial future on the right path; that’s going to add up every month.
And so if you think a dollar compared to a hundred dollars is about 1%. So a hundred dollars. So a hundred and fifties, maybe half a percent or somewhere in that range. So you’re losing. You’re buying investments trying to get 10% a year, but you’re already crippling yourself by 1% or half a percent or whatever that is. And you know, that’s not junk change. That could be a dividend in a good pain dividend stock. That’s maybe more of a growth-type investment. Half a percent dividend yield is pretty decent if you’re getting the growth there. So by having a fee where you’re guaranteed to lose, not only are you limiting your compounding, but it’s almost as if that that compounding effect is working against you, almost like debt would work against you. Such a broker like fidelity or a broker like Merrill edge doesn’t charge these sorts of account fees.
And that goes a long way when you’re investing and continually putting money in, and also a downside with Stash that I’ve seen here, they have a $3 a month plan, and you have to pay that if you want to do a Roth IRA or a traditional IRA. So IRAs are very good for investors, whether you’re starting out or whether you’ve been investing for a while to at least put some money into an IRA because you’re getting a tax shield either on the front of that or the back of that. And there’s no reason not to take that tax shield. Suppose you’re going to be investing in this stuff for a long time anyway, which is the kind of time horizon you want to have when you’re buying stocks. And so now, instead of paying a dollar a month, you have to pay $3 a month. When again, you can have a broker like fidelity or Schwab, not have to pay anything. And you have a Roth IRA, a traditional IRA, a regular brokerage account, any account you could want, and you don’t have to pay for that. So these fees that sound like little things they do add up and even 1% a year, I mean, go back to this one, $1 for 150 that’s on that every single investor you’re making, you’re, you’re crippling yourself by a percent, and that’s not easy. You know, I mean, my goal for the eLetter is to beat the market. By 1%, it doesn’t sound like a lot, but the difference over 40 years is the difference between 600,000 and a million dollars. These little percentage points that when you first start doesn’t sound like a lot, they end up as a lot. And so you don’t want to cripple yourself, particularly if you’re starting with low amounts of money, with a disadvantage, like a recurring fee for your brokerage.
And I echo everything. Andrew is saying there, that’s right on the money and why you have options out there that are just as good and free, and you don’t have to have those costs mounting up against you. Why w why do it? It just, it, it, as Andrew was saying, it cripples you from the beginning, and it’ll do it; it will add up its compounds over time. And if you have it, the other thing to think about too is, let’s say that you continued on the path with one of these apps.
That’s charging you when you want to move. It’s a lot harder to do because now you have to sell those positions. You have to close that account. You have to go to a new broker; you have to open that account again and rebuy those companies. Suppose you want to continue to invest in them. And then you don’t have the option of, you know, doing something like if you got a great price when you first bought it, and now you have to kind of give up that, that those additional gains over a longer period. And so it just kind of hampers you in that respect. And again, I guess I go back to, if you have the option, that will give you the same service and the same opportunities you would have with another broker, but there are no charges for it.
Then I would probably go with the one that has no charges. And for me, Charles Schwab has been awesome. I’ve had a great experience with them, and they’ve been very helpful. They helped open the account. They’re helpful after opening the account; they even called me three or four times after I opened the account to see if I had any questions if I needed any further assistance and all those kinds of things, which I felt like was above and beyond, and not something that you get a lot from customer service let alone in the banking industry. So I’ve had great experiences with it and the bonuses. It also, you can do it with a checking or savings account. So if you want to bank with them and make it convenient, you can certainly do that.
So there are other additional benefits that you can get from that kind of relationship. So it’s just another thing, I guess, to think about. And that’s what I like about my Merrill edge account is it’s linked up to my bank of America, online banking. And so I can see all of my balances from my Merrill account, which includes a brokerage account of five 29 retirement accounts.
I could see that when I log into a bank of America, which is super cool. And one last thing about this whole thing, you know, the fact that they charge a dollar a month, $3 a month, and $9 a month for their premium plan. What happens with a subscription-like Netflix, for example, once they had a big base and want to keep growing, what did they do? They raised the price of the subscription. So if they have many people where they know people don’t want to move brokerages, because it’s inconvenient, like you said, Dave, it takes time. I know I had to roll over from one brokerage to another, and it took like a week for the money to move. And I had to stop positions at a place where I didn’t want to sell out. And then, of course, the stocks moved a lot in that week.
And that was very frustrating. So to your point, you want to set this stuff up, so you don’t have to deal with problems later. And so going with somebody that I might, might have learned the hard way a little bit, but I, I, there’s a reason why my favorites now are fidelity Schwab and Merrill edge. And that’s, that’s who I recommend today.
Yeah., those are great points. And I guess another thing to think about too is we have no benefit. We have no skin in the game to recommend these companies. We use things on our honor, our own, and we don’t have any benefit other than we feel like these are the best things for everybody to use, and they’re helpful for everybody. So that’s why we recommend them. All right. We are moving on to the next question. Andrew, Dave, I’m so glad that I found your IFP podcast.
My brother tried to turn me into investing through Robin hood last year and seeing investing news and social media sparked my interest to learn more about it finally. Recently, your approach and attention to detail of businesses is exactly what I was looking for and aligns with my values. So much one question when purchasing stocks with dividends, if you already had existing stocks and that company before the ex-dividend date, but you purchase more after that, you only be paid out the dividends for the shares you own before that date, or does that apply to all shares at the time of the payout? Andrew, what are your, what’s your response to that?
That would be cool. We could do many tricky things if you could just put one share in on a bunch of companies and then add a bunch to get paid out and then take them out again.
But now it’s the shares that you have before the ex-dividend date. Now, what’s interesting. You can hold a stock through the ex-dividend date and then sell the stock before the dividend gets paid, and you still get the dividend, but these kinds of like timing things. When you hear about it, you might think, Oh, maybe I can like make a trading strategy out of it. But you really can’t like it as an, when the ex-dividend date happens, the stock price will drop after the fact to account for the fact that a company is paying a dividend. And so, you know, you can’t jump in and out of X dividend dates to try to make a profit because the market automatically adjusts to that. And so when it comes to just holding dividend stocks, it’s just got a hold of them and try to get them before the ex-dividend day, if you can.
But if not, Oh, well, you’ll, you’ll, you’ll get hit on the next quarterly round. And that’s how that all works. That’s very interesting. So for those of our listeners who are not familiar with an ex-dividend date, could you kind of briefly explain that to them? Yeah. It’s the date you have to own shares in the company to get a dividend. So there are usually three important dates with the dividend. There’ll be the date that they announced the dividend, the date that you have to hold the dividend by, which is the ex-dividend date. I’m sorry, hold the stock buy to get the dirt in the CX dividend day. And then, the dividend is paid. Something that I’ve noticed with many companies is you’ll kind of have those dates back to back to back. So they might announce a dividend.
They’re like, Hey, by the way, in a week, or in two weeks, if you have our stock, you’ll get a dividend, and then you’ll get the dividend shortly after that. So that’s something where you can look at a company’s dividend history to see when they’ve paid their dividends in the past. And generally, if things are going well, they’ll continue that into the feature. So if a company’s paid January, April, July, September, you know, you could, you could Google a ticker say, you want to look at Apple. You could say APL, dividend history, and click on one of those links, and they’ll show you that they should show you those three dates. The dividend announced the dividend and the dividend paid date. And you can kind of see if a company is about to pay a dividend or not. Or if you want to check up on the companies you have, that’s another way to look, and you can see when you can expect some dividends to come in.
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Do companies Typically broadcast that well in advance? Or is that more of a quarter-to-quarter kind of thing?
Yeah, that’s a good question. It’s, it’s, it’s pretty fast. So it tends to be quarter to quarter. And like, for me, I’m buying stocks, and I’m recommending stocks once a month. There’s not much of a chance for me to pick something to, to get ahead of that if that makes sense. Like many times, they’ll announce at the same time they announce earnings, and there’ll be once a quarter. And so if I was trying to, I don’t know, like if I was trying to look across the field and see, okay, which of these companies are going to pay a really big dividend, I’m not going to have much time to make a move because they’ll probably announce it. And then, in a couple of weeks, they’ll ex-dividend it.
And then a couple of weeks after that, they’ll pay it. So it’ll happen all within like the same month or the same 30 day period. So it’s not like I can go in and pick off a bunch of high-growing dividend things and get out and get in and get out. It’s going to be very hard to do unless you’re day trading. And so, for the long-term investor, I don’t think it’s something to worry too much about. Okay. Yeah. That’s, that’s good advice. So the drip King has spoken, folks. All right. Let’s move on to the next question. Hello. I have; I keep hearing how the ten-year yield is causing stocks to go down. Can you explain why? So that CNBC will make sense to me again. Thanks, Matt. Andrew, what are your thoughts on that one?
Yeah, I love it. So maybe let’s get you to explain the ten-year yield a little bit. Maybe explain why interest rates are so important. And, and why the ten-year yields looked at very closely for that. Okay. As well. It has to do with valuation. So the ten-year yield is closely tied. Let’s go back for just a second here. The ten-year yield, when we were talking about that, what we’re referring to is a T bill. So it’s a treasury bond. That’s a ten-year bond, but it’s referred to as a B bill. And it indicates how long the interest rates will be for a ten-year investment in a bond that you buy from the treasury department. So the reason why it has a big impact on what happens in the markets is several things. So the first one is it has to do with valuations.
And when I’m talking about valuations, I’m talking about the methods that we use to determine the value of a company in the stock market. And one of the ways that we do that is we use discount rates or different kinds of rates. And a lot of people use the ten-year rate as one of their base rates. It’s considered what’s called a risk-free rate. And the reason why they call it a risk-free rate is that the ten-year rate is backed by the full faith and governance of the United States government. And until now, up until now, so far, the US government has never defaulted on alone because a bond is alone, a debt
That we’re buying from the government, and then when we give them the money back, they give us our money back. When we’re investing, we look at trying to find the best return that we can get. And so when you look at a risk-free rate or the absolute lowest risk that you can buy, most people look at a ten-year yield is that’s one of them, I guess, ratings that people will look at as something that you could buy and not worry about losing your money if you bought this. When the tenure rate goes up and down, investors in the stock market say that this is what a price should be. That we’d be willing to bet that if I put a hundred dollars in a T bill, that I would get my hundred dollars back plus whatever interest, I would make.
And that’s a risk-free bet just like putting your money in a savings account, the same kind of idea. So when we’re looking at valuations or trying to figure out the fair price of a company like Apple or Microsoft, one of the ways we do that is we use a discount rate, and I’m not going to go into all the technical jargon, but think of the risk-free rate as the, one of the main drivers that help us determine what a price should be and how much we should discount that price. And as the bond prices move up, the valuations will start to come down. And when the bond prices go down, as they did in March, for example, in March of last year in 2020, right before everything kind of hit the fan, the ten-year treasury yields were don’t hold me to this, but probably in the 1.2 to 1.5 range.
And then the fed dropped the rates in the markets to almost zero, which caused those TBL rates to drop to almost nothing. They dropped to believe that the low there are about 0.4 to 0.5, somewhere in that range, which is historically low, hardly ever seen that it was horrible in the history of the United States. And when that rate went down, then everything became super cheap to buy. And the price has just skyrocketed. And that’s why you saw companies like Tesla, snowflake, Airbnb door, dash Peloton 12 Spotify skyrocket through the roof because now their evaluations are, in other words, the fair value of the company is now worth a whole lot of money, according to the way that we model all these things. And again, I don’t want to get into all the nitty-gritty of that, but basically, remember that the ten-year yield has a lot to do with how much a stock is worth in the market and when the prices or the yield of a bond goes up, the valuations of that drop, because now people could invest in a ten-year bond and get a safe return.
And so more conservative money will move towards that as supports to investing in a stock. And when those yields drop, people will start to move towards buying stocks because they can get better returns and it’s air quote, safer to invest in riskier companies like that. So does that kind of help explain some of it? That’s yeah, that was a great way you toed the line there because it can get very technical and very complex. I like the comparison you made because it’s, as those yields go up, it’s less attractive to buy stocks because those stocks are riskier. And so, the higher the risk-free yield is the government tenure treasury yield. The higher that is, the more likely you are the buy that instead of something riskier like a stock. So when it’s the opposite, it’s the same thing.
And so when analysts are looking at doing valuations, basically what their discount rate is doing is it’s comparing that attractiveness between how risky this stock is compared to how risky the risk-free yield is and how high the risk field wraps back around into how, how that compares with how risky the stock you’re looking to bias. Yeah, exactly, exactly. And I think Matt, that’s why CNBC is talking about this more right now because the yields on those have gone up. And when we’re talking about yields, we’re talking about the return you can get to invest in that bond. And it refers to the coupon that you could make. And the more the price of the bond falls, the higher the yield goes up. And as the yogurt goes up, then that becomes a more invest theoretically in attractive investment.
And so what people do is they, if they see the yields go up, they start to think, now that maybe stocks are going to become riskier, and they’re going to start getting out of more of the riskier assets. And so riskier companies, like, I mean, you can, you could name just about anything right now and zoom. Yeah, exactly. Zoom. Perfect. So zoom has exploded over the last year because of the work from home aspect of the economy that exploded in the last year. And when you take the fact that yields are going up, then all of a sudden, a company like a zoom, which this is not a bash on the company or a bash on the product itself; it’s more about the stock price. So the stock price becomes now, it becomes a little more, less attractive to invest in now, because now it looks like there might be other opportunities to invest.
And why would you put money in a company you don’t think will go up anymore and may go down, then you’re going to take your money out of that and put it into something else. Whether it’s a T, whether it’s a ten-year T bill, or whether it’s another company that’s maybe not as risky. What happens is everything rotates out of one sector of the market into another sector. Think of it like a Seesaw; everything just kind of ebbs and flows back and forth, just like going up and down on a Seesaw. People start taking money out of zoom and put it into something else, which causes the prices to start falling. And so that’s why CNBC is talking about this because they spend a lot of time talking about these exciting companies that are all exploding across the market. And when things turn, then that’s what they’re going to talk about. The other thing too, and we shouldn’t get too deep into this either, but interest rates
It’s are such a huge component of the economy as a whole. And the ten-year yield is probably the most important interest rate, and it tends to drive all the other interest rates you see. So let’s use another example like buying a home and Marges, so the lower that interest rates are, the more that people are likely to buy a mortgage because when you go together mortgage from a bank, the lower interest rate on your mortgage means you’re going to pay less than the interest per month. So that monthly payment is going to be less so you can have To buy a bigger home. And so, yeah, You can use that same logic with, say, you’re a business owner. When you’re trying to start a business, let’s say you got to hire five employees. You need to get two company cars, and you need to rent an office. Maybe you don’t have That cash sitting in your bank account. You can go to a bank and get a loan. The lower the loan, the lower the interest rate you can get for that loan.
The more money you’ll borrow From the bank or the lower your monthly payments will be, the easier it will be for you to borrow that. And so, Whether you’re talking about the interest rate on a loan for a business or the interest rate for a mortgage Or the interest rate for credit cards, all these interest rates are All tied together, and they’re all working in this economy. When rates go lower, money flows more freely, you know, more homes can be Bought, more businesses can be open. It’s just; it’s this big, nice spiral upwards of prosperity. And so when you look at it moving the other way, it turns, and that’s the flip side, money Titans, credit tightens people can’t
Borrow as much. Maybe people start to default on their loans because they have rates now that just, and then go up as the overall interest rates go up. And so that can cycle into something like a recession or depression. And that’s not to say that that’s overseen now, but that’s why when you see movements and interest rates, particularly the ten-year yield, that’s why you’ll see movements in the economy. And that’s one aspect. And then, of course, you have the whole stock market aspect. And as Dave said, I mean, that’s, it’s these huge high flyers that are so ridiculously overpriced that are the most sensitive to these rates, because for whatever reason, they’re the ones that get bid up when money is cheap and whether they’re relying on that, or they’re relying on these impossibly high evaluations, once the tide turns and that Seesaw kind of starts to tip the other way, then you know, it, it crashes just as high as, and just as fast as it falls. So you have to be careful about that. And that’s another good reason why investing in value investing is so attractive because you don’t get, you still get the Seesaw swings, but they’re not like 50 feet seesaws. Maybe they’re like five-foot seesaws if you’re doing that. Right.
And that works just fine for me. Cause when I, when you get older, that 50 Seems a lot higher, and you have to be careful,
I’m scared of Heights. So it’s always seemed high to me.
There you go. Fair enough. Fair enough. That was an excellent point on the interest rates for the homes. That was a great point. So, All right. Let’s move on to the Last question. So I have hello, and thank you for all your insights. Please explain in your podcast the phenomenon of buying the rumor news and selling the dues. I have followed the Churchill slash Woosah deal, and it does not make sense to me; Andrew, would you like to help clarify some of that for them?
I think you probably know a lot more about this Churchill lucid deal than I do as far as buying the or selling the news. It’s a nice phrase, but you know, I don’t think it’s a good way to invest for the longterm. No, it’s not.
So here’s what little I do know about the Churchill lucid deal. Lucid is an EV producer. Another one of the electric vehicle companies that are coming online Churchill, Churchill, lucid deal. It’s a SPAC. So it’s a reverse IPO, I believe. And they are the company that’s helping lucid go public. And so lucid is one of the doer car companies that’s coming out. They’re going to make an electric vehicle. And I’m looking at a picture of one right now. It’s quite beautiful, but here Sue, they are not producing any vehicles yet.
The factory that they’re building, which is in Casa Grande, Arizona, is not finished yet. They finished the first phase of the building at the end of December, but they’re still working on finishing the building to make the cars. So their projections are to start producing their first vehicle sometime this spring, coming up here in a few months. And they’re looking to produce about 7,000 vehicles this year. They hope that next year they’ll be able to produce 30,000 vehicles. And in a few years, they’re hoping to get up to about 365,000 vehicles. Now, keep in mind that Tesla has been doing this for a while now; it took them almost 17 years to get up to 500,000. And Elon Musk is he’s a smart dude. And he’s he talked about what kind of production hell he was in trying to get some of his vehicles through the assembly line and produced and everything.
So I think 365,000 is probably a little bit optimistic possibly. And anyway, so they’re hoping to be able to get all this done by 2028. So we’re looking at seven years to grow from 7,000 to about 365,000. I, you know how I feel about Tesla? So I’m, I’m even more probably bearish on this, on this situation. I’m not saying that I won’t, it won’t come to pass, but it’s a little bit like Nico, where they don’t even have a vehicle yet. And people are already starting to invest in it in the stock market. And I get, you know, being first in and that whole opportunity, but that kind of stuff is, that’s just not for me, that’s speculation. That’s not investing. And that’s not the kind of thing that, that I think is a good idea. And especially if we start seeing a turn in some of these riskier investments, I think this could be kind of a scary situation to get into. So I would probably avoid this, like the plague, if I could bombing isn’t that Phrase itself, buying the rumor. I mean, that kind of impact My speculation. Yes, It does. Yeah, for sure. I remember when I first,
I first really started to get into this whole investing shtick. I was working for Wells Fargo, and I had a gentleman that I worked for. His name was Aaron, and he was the financial advisor and a branch that I worked at. And he was an amazing, smart guy; I liked him. And he was so open to me just asking him questions. And I asked him a lot of questions. And I remember one day I was sitting at my desk and I was kind of a swoll moment. And I happened to pull up the news, and I was reading something. And it was kind of along the lines of you, there was this, you know, horrible news about some company, but the stock price was exploding through the roof. And I was like, Oh, why does that make sense? Why, when earnings are down and they have some scandal going on, now everybody wants to buy the company, and it doesn’t make sense to me.
So I went and asked, asked Erin what was going on? And he said, he said, they sell the news. And I’m like, what? And he said they saw the news. He said, when things are bad, they think that you know that this is an opportunity to get in before things get really good. And so they go out, and they start bidding up the price of the company, and everybody wants to pile in, and kind of the reverse happens when something good comes out, they think, Oh, you know, something, you know, that the stock price is going to go up. And so they want to sell with their gains and move on to something else. Now that kind of makes sense. It’s a kind of reversed idea of psychology, but it makes sense. I get it. So that’s kind of; that’s how it was explained to me when I first kind of got into investing. I, yeah, that’s a perfect, perfect explanation of it, I think. All right. So here’s kind of the deal. Here’s the, here’s my
Thought, I guess, on the Selling the rumor, buying the news kind of thing. My idea of that is I’m going to buy the company based on the potential valuation of the company, as well as the prospects of prosperity for the company. And I’m going to base that more on what the company is telling me what I see in the market as far as other conditions, and also what the financials tell me about the company and what I believe about the management and their capabilities to perform what’s going on with the company. It’s a little bit like I try to pay attention to all the things that I feel like a matter of the business I’m going to buy. Because again, I’m buying a business on a button, not buying some ticker on a screen, on a computer, it’s a little bit like trying to find a significant other and dating them based on rumors.
You know, about them in school, as opposed to meeting the person and finding out about them and discovering that you have lots in common and have a great relationship. And I feel like that’s kind of the same application that you can think about with buying a company. When you buy a company, you’re, you’re investing in a relationship with the management, as well as all the people that work for the company, as well as the product that they sell and make, and the services that they offer and all the things that go into all the aspects of those. And it’s not just buying or selling it on a rumor or what the news is, is, is talking about with a particular company. And it’s more about getting to know the company and understanding how it works and how it under it does what it does.
And focusing more on that, as opposed to what CNBC has to say about some particular company in a 14-second soundbite because that is more along the lines of speculation than it is about investing. It’s no different from any other rumor that you experienced in your social life or that you experienced at work. It may come to pass, and it may not come to pass. Do you decide based on something you heard somebody say, or do you make a decision based on your experience and your knowledge and what you know about something? So I guess that’s kind of my thought on that. There is a lot of wisdom there. That’s very well said. Thank you.
All right, folks. Well, that is going to wrap up our conversation for this evening. I wanted to thank everybody for taking the time to write us those great questions. Please keep them coming. This is fantastic. And you guys are asking some great questions. Hopefully, you guys are getting some good takeaways from all this, and without any further ado, I’m going to go ahead and sign this off. You guys, go out there and invest with a margin of safety emphasis on the safety. Have a great week. We’ll talk to you all next week.
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