Publicly available financial data collected by investment newsletter provider Sather Research, LLC showed that five Publicly Traded Home Builders by Market Cap grew Total Revenues on average 10.84% YoY in the January to March quarter, according to their Latest Earnings Releases.
Of the top publicly traded home builders who released Spring 2024 earnings results, the following five companies grew revenues 10.84% YoY on average: D.R. Horton, Lennar Corp, PulteGroup, Toll Brothers, and NVR, Inc.
D.R. Horton, Inc. stood out with the highest growth rate for Spring 2024 revenues at 14.20%, followed by Toll Brothers at 13.18%.
The following sections are covered in this report [Click to Skip Ahead]:
- Biggest Publicly Traded Homebuilders by Market Share
- Top Homebuilders By Revenue Growth
- Top Homebuilders By Earnings (EPS) Growth
Company revenues, earnings, and stock forecasts covered:
- D.R. Horton (DHI) Stock Forecast
- Lennar Corp (LEN) Stock Forecast
- NVR, Inc. (NVR) Stock Forecast
- PulteGroup, Inc (PHM) Stock Forecast
- Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Forecast
The list below only includes the top five Homebuilders by Market cap of >$10B. In the next section, all relevant publicly traded Homebuilders with >$3B in revenues are included.
| Company | March 2023 | March 2024 | YOY |
| D.R. Horton, Inc. | $7,972.90 | $9,107.20 | 14.20% |
| Lennar Corp | $8,045.15 | $8,765.59 | 8.95% |
| Pultegroup, Inc. | $3,575.64 | $3,949.16 | 10.45% |
| Toll Brothers | $2,506.98 | $2,837.49 | 13.18% |
| NVR, Inc. | $2,214.24 | $2,378.42 | 7.41% |
D.R. Horton reported a 14% increase YoY in net sales orders to 26,456 homes in recent quarter, with a cancellation rate of 15% compared to 18% in the prior quarter. Homes closed in the quarter increased 15% to 22,548 homes compared to the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, homebuilding revenue also increased for the quarter by 13% to $8.5 billion compared to the previous quarter last year of $7.5 billion. However, sales order backlog contracts continued to decrease this quarter by –7%.
Lennar Corp saw revenues from home sales increase by 8.95% YoY which was due to a 15% increase in deliveries of 19,690 homes. On the other hand, new orders also increased by 19% to 21,293 homes. Management reiterated that the housing market remained fundamentally strong with the housing supply remaining chronically short due to production deficits over a decade, and demand strength driven by strong household formation.
PulteGroup recorded a 10.45% YoY increase in home sales revenues with new net orders increasing by 14% to 8,379 homes compared to the previous same quarter. Meanwhile, home closings also increased by 10% to 7,095 homes. Cancellation rate decreased by 10% compared to 13% in the prior year period.
NVR, Inc. reported a 7.0% increase in homebuilding revenues compared to the previous same quarter, excluding financing-driven revenues. Meanwhile, new orders continued to increase by 3% YoY to 6,049 units compared to 5,888 units in the same quarter 2023, with a cancellation rate of 13% for the latest quarter which was lower compared to 14% last quarter. The backlog of sold homes also increased on a unit basis by 7% to 11,189 units.
Toll Brothers increased their home sales revenues by 6% YoY with delivered homes up by 6% also to 2,641 homes with an average selling price of $1.04 million. Net signed contracts were also up 30% in units compared to same previous year quarter, however, backlog value was down -12% YoY with homes in backlog also down -6% to 7,093.
Key Takeaway
The latest quarterly earnings results of publicly traded homebuilders showed a slowdown in earnings from a high base last year. However, new orders for homes continue to rise with no signs of slowing down soon. Most of the management, if not all, on the list reiterated that the housing market continues to be in demand amidst the continued high interest rate as the decade-long underbuilding of home supply awashes the market.
Biggest Publicly Traded Homebuilders by Market Share
The graph below shows homebuilders with meaningful >$3B TTM revenues as of latest quarter of March 2024.
Leading the group is D.R. Horton, Inc. with roughly 24.6% market share, followed shortly by Lennar Corp with 23.6%, and trailing behind is Pultegroup, Inc. with 10.9% of Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) revenue share of all publicly traded homebuilders.
| Company | Revenues (TTM in Thousands | Mkt Share |
| D.R. Horton | $36,196,600 | 24.6% |
| Lennar Corp | $34,673,966 | 23.6% |
| PulteGroup, Inc. | $16,079,923 | 10.9% |
| Toll Brothers | $10,493,123 | 7.1% |
| NVR, Inc. | $9,469,449 | 6.4% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corp | $7,283,604 | 5.0% |
| KB Home | $6,407,933 | 4.4% |
| Meritage Homes Corp | $6,302,106 | 4.3% |
| M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. | $4,825,482 | 3.3% |
| M/I Homes, Inc. | $3,984,165 | 2.7% |
| Tri Ponte Homes | $3,821,542 | 2.6% |
| Century Communities, Inc. | $3,798,445 | 2.6% |
| Dream Finders Homes | $3,796,633 | 2.5% |
Top Homebuilders by Revenue Growth
In the last three fiscal years, D.R. Horton Inc. led its peers in the homebuilding industry with a 15.31% compounded annual revenue growth rate.
Meanwhile, D.R. Horton Inc. is still ahead of 1-yr YoY revenues, growing revenues of 10.12% from 2023 to 2024; meanwhile, Lennar Corp trails behind with 6.34% 1-yr YoY revenue growth.
Lennar Corp takes the number two spot in 3yr CAGR of 13.53%, followed by PulteGroup, Inc. and Toll Brothers with 12.73% and 10.91% 3yr CAGR, respectively.
| Company | 3yr CAGR | 1yr Growth YOY |
| D.R. Horton, Inc. | 15.31% | 10.12% |
| Lennar Corp | 13.53% | 6.34% |
| PulteGroup, Inc. | 12.73% | 0.04% |
| Toll Brothers | 10.91% | -0.01% |
| Meritage Homes | 10.54% | 0.67% |
| NVR, Inc. | 7.09% | -5.39% |
| Taylor Morrison Home | 6.33% | -8.89% |
Key Takeaway
The three-year revenue CAGRs of homebuilders continue to slow down as they come off the peak of 2023 high earnings, which is more apparent in their 1-year YOY revenue growth. However, new orders continue to increase, and cancellation rates also decrease sequentially, which shows demand is still strong. As PulteGroup’s management pointed out, after more than a decade of underbuilding, it is estimated that our country has a structural shortage of several million homes.
Top Homebuilders By Earnings (EPS) Growth
In the previous three fiscal years, Toll Brothers recorded the highest 3-year annual compounded growth rate in earnings per share at 35.08%.
All publicly traded homebuilders listed below have recorded an average annual EPS growth rate of 20%+ in their last three Fiscal Years.
Among the companies in the above graph, Toll Brothers has the highest 1-year EPS YOY growth rate of 16.85%.
The highest 3-year EPS CAGR companies in the list are Toll Brothers at 51.46%, Taylor Morrison Home at 35.08%, and PulteGroup at 30.89%.
| Company | 3yr EPS CAGR | 1yr EPS YOY |
| Toll Brothers, Inc | 51.46% | 16.85% |
| Taylor Morrison Home | 35.08% | -25.98% |
| PulteGroup, Inc. | 30.89% | 7.69% |
| NVR, Inc. | 24.56% | 0.92% |
| D.R. Horton, Inc. | 19.44% | -1.08% |
| Meritage Homes | 19.35% | -12.40% |
| Lennar Corp | 10.94% | 0.35% |
Homebuilders Revenue, Earnings and Stock Forecast (By Company; Quarter ending March 2024)
| Company | YOY EPS Forecast |
| D.R. Horton, Inc. | -2.80% |
| Lennar Corp | -7.22% |
| NVR, Inc. | 4.01% |
| PulteGroup, Inc. | 9.60% |
| Toll Brothers | -11.81% |
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) Revenue, Earnings, and Stock Forecast
D.R. Horton, Inc. revenue over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $36.2 billion. D.R. Horton, Inc. earnings (Net Income) over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $4.96 billion.
The Wall Street consensus for D.R. Horton, Inc. EPS (earnings per share) projection for the next quarter is $3.79. The company’s TTM (trailing twelve months) Earnings Per Share was $14.81 as of the quarter ending March 31, 2024.
Based on the consensus of stock market analyst forecasts, D.R. Horton, Inc., is expected to see a contraction in earnings per share of -2.80% YOY in the next quarter.
Lennar Corp (LEN) Revenue, Earnings, and Stock Forecast
Lennar Corp revenue over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $35.78 billion. Lennar Corp earnings (Net Income) over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $4.14 billion.
The Wall Street consensus for Lennar Corp EPS (earnings per share) projection for the next quarter is $3.63. The company’s TTM (trailing twelve months) Earnings Per Share was $14.72 as of the quarter ending May 30, 2024.
Lennar Corp is expected to see a contraction in earnings per share of -7.22% YOY in the next quarter based on the consensus of stock market analyst forecasts.
NVR, Inc. (NVR) Revenue, Earnings, and Stock Forecast
NVR, Inc. revenue over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $9.85 billion. NVR, Inc.’s earnings (Net Income) over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $1.64 billion.
The Wall Street consensus for NVR, Inc. EPS (earnings per share) projection for the next quarter is $121.21. The company’s TTM (trailing twelve months) Earnings Per Share was $509.04 as of the quarter ending March 31, 2024.
Based on the consensus of stock market analyst forecasts, NVR, Inc., is expected to see an expansion in earnings per share of 4.01% YOY in the next quarter.
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Revenue, Earnings, and Stock Forecast
PulteGroup, Inc.’s revenue over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $16.44 billion. PulteGroup, Inc.’s earnings (Net Income) over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $2.73 billion.
The Wall Street consensus for PulteGroup, Inc.’s EPS (earnings per share) projection for the next quarter is $3.29. The company’s TTM (trailing twelve months) Earnings Per Share was $12.58 as of the quarter ending March 31, 2024.
Based on the consensus of stock market analyst forecasts, PulteGroup, Inc., is expected to see an expansion in earnings per share of 9.60% YOY in the next quarter.
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Revenue, Earnings, and Stock Forecast
Toll Brothers, Inc.’s revenue over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $10.5 billion. Toll Brothers, Inc.’s earnings (Net Income) over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $1.6 billion.
The Wall Street consensus for Toll Brothers, Inc.’s EPS (earnings per share) projection for the next quarter is $3.31. The company’s TTM (trailing twelve months) Earnings Per Share was $14.8 as of the quarter ending April 30, 2024.
Based on the consensus of stock market analyst forecasts, Toll Brothers, Inc.’s earnings per share are expected to contract -11.81% year over year in the next quarter.
Methodology
All data mentioned here in this article was sourced from publicly available filings and releases, and processed by investment newsletter provider, Sather Research, LLC.
Stock forecasts and analyst consensus EPS growth estimates were sourced from data provided by Seeking Alpha.
Contact Seoshin Chil at [email protected] for any further commentary, concerns, questions, or feedback. Alternatively, you can get in touch with the company during business hours through our contact page, or call 888-978-1348 from Monday – Friday; 9AM EST – 5:00 PM EST.
Seoshin Chil
Seoshin is an active sailor in offshore windfarm vessels but has a passion for studying great businesses and investing in them. Being always at sea does not stop him from doing so!
