Publicly Traded Waste Management Industry Report: Autumn 2023 Results

According to their latest earnings releases, the latest Autumn earnings results of the Top 4 Publicly Traded Waste Management companies by YoY revenues increased by 5% in the July-September quarter.

Of the publicly traded Waste Management companies that released Autumn 2023 earnings results, one leads ahead the list and increased their YoY revenues by 9.8%, which is Waste Connections, Inc.

Bar chart of the top 4 waste management companies by market cap in autumn 2023
Note: In USD

Waste Management, Inc. had the least increase in YoY revenues at 2.40% followed by GFL Environmental, Inc. at 3.20%.

The following sections are covered in this report [Click to Skip Ahead]:

Company revenues, earnings, and stock forecasts covered:

The Top 4 Waste Management Companies By Market Cap

The list below only includes the top four Waste Management companies by market cap of >$10B USD. In the next section, all relevant >$1B USD market cap publicly traded waste management companies will be included.

CompanyQ3 2022Q3 2023YOY
Waste Management, Inc.$5,075.00$5,198.002.40%
Republic Services, Inc.$3,597.80$3,825.906.30%
Waste Connections, Inc.$1,879.90$2,064.709.80%
GFL Environmental, Inc.$1,325.80$1,391.503.20%
*In millions

Waste Management, Inc. reported a 2.40% increase YoY revenues in their latest Q3, 2023, with a flat net income. During the recent quarter, however, reported total collection and disposal volumes increased by 1.4%. Management said it remains focused on continuing to drive operating leverage in the business, as shown by recent technology and automation upgrades in their recycling facilities and a seventh renewable natural gas facility expected to be in service in January 2024.

Republic Services, Inc. saw revenues increase by 6.3% YoY, which includes 4.6% organic growth and 1.7% growth from acquisitions. However, collection volume growth only increased by 0.1%. The management was pleased with their results and attributed the revenue growth to healthy pricing, positive organic volume growth, and above-average contribution from acquisitions.

Waste Connections, Inc. recorded a 9.8% YoY revenue increase while adjusted EBITDA up 1.20% YoY. Management attributed the continued growth momentum due to overcoming elevated levels of risk-related expenses and other lagging effects of higher employee turnover.

GFL Environmental, Inc. reported a 3.20% YoY increase in revenues, which includes the impact of divestitures while excluding it, revenues increased by 10.30%. Solid waste pricing increase of 8.8% YoY has driven the revenue growth while environmental services contributed also albeit slightly by 1.9% Management is optimistic and saw significant margin improvements during the quarter despite headwinds from M&A, commodity pricing and fuel.

Key Takeaway

The recent increase in quarterly revenues of waste management companies show how resilient earnings are even in a boring waste collection, disposal, and recycling industry. The top 4 waste management companies continue to grow by M&A and healthy price increases tied to inflation and commodity and fuel prices.

It is worth noting that most of the top 4 continue investing heavily in RNG projects (renewable natural gas from landfill facilities) and are taking advantage of the increasing demand for biofuels in the energy industry.

Biggest Publicly Traded Waste Management Companies by Market Share

The graph shown below comprises> $10B market cap publicly traded waste management companies as of January 2024.

Pie chart of publicly traded waste managemnt companies market share revenues
*In USD

Leading the group is Waste Management with roughly 34.2% market share, followed by Republic Services with 24.9%, and behind is Waste Connections with 13.3% of Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) revenue share of all > $1B publicly traded waste management companies.

CompanyRevenues (TTM in Thousands)Mkt Share
Waste Management, Inc.$20,144,00034.2%
Republic Services, Inc.$14,662,70024.9%
Waste Connections, Inc.$7,855,64313.3%
GFL Environmental, Inc.$5,524,3129.4%
Clean Harbors, Inc.$5,349,0819.1%
Stericycle, Inc.$2,677,6004.5%
Savers Value Village, Inc.$1,484,2862.5%
Casella Waste Systems, Inc.$1,177,1022.0%

Top Waste Management Companies by Revenue Growth

In the previous three fiscal years, GFL Environmental lead ahead among its peers in the waste management industry with a 24.56% CAGR in revenues.

Meanwhile, GFL Environmental still leads in boosting its year-over-year annual revenue growth of 16.84% from 2022-2023.

bar chart of the top publicly traded waste management companies by revenue growth

Clean Harbors takes the number two spot in 3yr revenue CAGR with 18.45%, while trailing behind is Casella Waste Systems and Waste Connections with 15.30% and 13.24% 3yr CAGR, respectively.

Company3yr CAGR1yr Growth YOY
GFL Environmental, Inc.24.56%16.84%
Clean Harbors, Inc.18.45%6.81%
Casella Waste Systems, Inc.15.30%11.60%
Waste Connections, Inc.13.24%12.76%
Republic Services, Inc.13.02%13.36%
Waste Management, Inc.10.34%3.62%
Stericycle, Inc.-1.71%-0.52%

Key Takeaway

The data above shows that the past three fiscal years have been resilient for waste management companies despite the rising fuel and labor costs. It shows a boring industry with pricing power in a relatively fragmented, low-barrier business. Operators have been efficiently managing costs, and it shows. Stericycle is an outlier, with it exposed mainly in medical waste and with the pandemic tailwind behind it.

Top Waste Management Companies by Earnings (EPS) Growth

In the last three fiscal years, Waste Connections saw the highest 3 year annual compounded growth rate of  60.17% in earnings per share.

Results of the publicly traded waste management companies below are mixed, with some experiencing a sharp downturn in EPS while others steadily climb up.

Bar chart of top publicly traded waste management companies by earnings (EPS) growth
*In USD

Among the companies in the above graph, GFL Environmental had the highest 1-year EPS YOY growth rate of 73.19%

The list’s highest 3-year EPS CAGR companies are Waste Connections at 60.17%, Clean Harbors at 46.01%, and Republic Services at 17.38%.

Company3yr EPS CAGR1yr EPS YOY
Waste Connections60.17%2.63%
Clean Harbors46.01%-4.07%
Republic Services17.38%12.68%
Waste Management16.83%4.97%
Casella Waste Systems-4.73%-36.09%
GFL Environmental-35.88%73.19%
Stericycle-76.08%-168.31%

Waste Management Companies Revenue, Earnings and Stock Forecast (Quarter ending Q3 2023)

CompanyYOY EPS Forecast
Waste Management17.58%
Republic Services14.46%
Waste Connections22.18%
GFL Environmental155.55%
*The list above only includes the top four Waste Management companies by market cap of >$10B USD

Waste Management (WM) Revenue, Earnings, and Stock Forecast

Waste Management’s revenue over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $20.1 billion. Waste Management’s earnings (Net Income) over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $2.3 billion.

The Wall Street consensus for Waste Management’s EPS (earnings per share) projection for the next quarter is $1.53. The company’s TTM (trailing twelve months) Earnings Per Share was $5.70 as of the quarter ending September 30, 2023.

Waste Management is expected to see an expansion in earnings per share of 17.58% YOY in the next quarter based on the consensus of stock market analyst forecasts.

Republic Services (RSG) Revenue, Earnings, and Stock Forecast

Republic Services’ revenue over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $14.7 billion. Republic Services’ earnings (Net Income) over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $1.6 billion.

The Wall Street consensus for Republic Services’ EPS (earnings per share) projection for the next quarter is $1.29. The company’s TTM (trailing twelve months) Earnings Per Share was $5.20 as of the quarter ending September 30, 2023.

Republic Services is expected to see an expansion in earnings per share of 14.46% YOY in the next quarter based on the consensus of stock market analyst forecasts.

Waste Connections (WCN) Revenue, Earnings, and Stock Forecast

Waste Connections’ revenue over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $7.9 billion. Waste Connections’ earnings (Net Income) over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $0.8 billion.

The Wall Street consensus for Waste Connections’ EPS (earnings per share) projection for the next quarter is $1.09. The company’s TTM (trailing twelve months) Earnings Per Share was $3.20 as of the quarter ending September 30, 2023.

Waste Connections is expected to see an expansion in earnings per share of 22.18% YOY in the next quarter based on the consensus of stock market analyst forecasts.

GFL Environmental (GFL) Revenue, Earnings, and Stock Forecast

GFL Environmental’s revenue over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $5.5 billion. GFL Environmental’s earnings (Net Income) over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was -$0.1 billion.

The Wall Street consensus for GFL Environmental’s EPS (earnings per share) projection for the next quarter is $0.21. The company’s TTM (trailing twelve months) Earnings Per Share was -$0.40 as of the quarter ending September 30, 2023.

GFL Environmental is expected to see an expansion in earnings per share of 155.55% YOY in the next quarter based on the consensus of stock market analyst forecasts.

Methodology

All data mentioned in this article was sourced from publicly available filings and releases and processed by investment newsletter provider Sather Research, LLC.

Stock forecasts and analyst consensus EPS growth estimates were sourced from data provided by Seeking Alpha.

Contact Seoshin Chil at [email protected] for any further commentary, concerns, questions, or feedback. Alternatively, you can get in touch with the company during business hours through our contact page, or call 888-978-1348 from Monday – Friday; 9AM EST – 5:00 PM EST.

Seoshin Chil

Seoshin is an active sailor in offshore windfarm vessels but has a passion for studying great businesses and investing in them. Being always at sea does not stop him from doing so!

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