According to their latest earnings releases, the Winter earnings results of the Top 4 Publicly Traded Waste Management companies by YoY revenues increased by 7% in the October-December quarter.
Of the publicly traded Waste Management companies that released Winter 2023 earnings results, two companies lead neck and neck in the list and increased their YoY revenues by 8.9% and 8.6% respectively, which are Waste Connections, Inc. and Republic Services.
GFL Environmental had the least increase in YoY revenues at 3.40% followed by Waste Management at 6.0%.
The following sections are covered in this report [Click to Skip Ahead]:
- The Top 4 Waste Management Companies By Market Cap
- Biggest Publicly Traded Waste Management Companies by Market Share
- Top Waste Management Companies by Revenue Growth
- Top Waste Management Companies by Earnings (EPS) Growth
Company revenues, earnings, and stock forecasts covered:
- Waste Management, Inc. (WM) Stock Forecast
- Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) Stock Forecast
- Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Stock Forecast
- GFL Environmental, Inc. (GFL) Stock Forecast
The Top 4 Waste Management Companies By Market Cap
The revenue list below only includes the top four Waste Management companies by market cap of >$10B. In the next section, all relevant >$1B market cap publicly traded waste management companies will be included.
| Company | Q4 2022 | Q4 2023 | YOY |
| Waste Management, Inc. | $4,935.00 | $5,217.00 | 5.70% |
| Republic Services, Inc. | $3,529.80 | $3,831.60 | 8.60% |
| Waste Connections, Inc. | $1,869.30 | $2,035.60 | 8.90% |
| GFL Environmental, Inc. | $1,345.10 | $1,421.00 | 3.40% |
Waste Management, Inc. reported a 5.70% increase YoY revenues in their latest quarter, driven primarily by price increases of 7.3%. Collection and disposal volumes continue to increase by 0.7%. However, the strong result was partially offset by the impact of lower commodity prices, which has negatively impacted their renewable energy business and recycling sales.
Republic Services, Inc. saw revenues increase by 8.6% YoY, with approximately 2.9% growth from acquisitions. Core pricing increase of 7.2% drove revenue growth and another 5.7% from organic growth. But volume growth only attributed 0.3% on revenue. Management was pleased, finishing their year strong and exceeded their expectations.
Waste Connections, Inc. recorded an 8.9% YoY revenue increase while adjusted EBITDA was up 2% YoY. Core pricing was up by 8.7% which drove revenue growth, while effect of fuel and material surcharges were negative to 0.08% due to lower fuel costs last quarter. Meanwhile, solid volumes in Q4 were down 2.3% as the company has been shedding poor quality revenues and non-renewal of municipal contracts.
GFL Environmental, Inc. reported a 3.40% YoY increase in revenues, which includes the impact of divestitures. While excluding it, revenues increased by 9.9%. Solid waste pricing increased by 9.8% YoY, which is the highest in company’s history. However, solid waste volumes were down -3.6%, 100 basis points compared to the previous quarter due to, as the company says, “intentional shedding of poor assets.”
Key Takeaway
The continued increase in quarterly revenues of waste management companies above can be attributed to the continual core price increases, which include collection fees and such. All the top 4 waste management companies continue to grow by M&A and focus on different levers to expand margins, such as recycling, RNG, and cost optimization, despite flat to no volume growth last quarter.
Biggest Publicly Traded Waste Management Companies by Market Share
The graph shown below comprises of >$1B market cap publicly traded waste management companies as of March 2024.
Leading the pack is Waste Management with roughly 34.1% market share, followed by Republic Services with 25.0%, and behind is Waste Connections with 13.4% of Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) revenue share of all >$1B publicly traded waste management companies.
| Company | Revenues (TTM in Thousands) | Mkt Share |
| Waste Management, Inc. | $20,426,000 | 34.1% |
| Republic Services, Inc. | $14,964,500 | 25.0% |
| Waste Connections, Inc. | $8,021,951 | 13.4% |
| GFL Environmental, Inc. | $5,672,203 | 9.5% |
| Clean Harbors, Inc. | $5,409,152 | 9.0% |
| Stericycle, Inc. | $2,659,300 | 4.4% |
| Savers Value Village, Inc. | $1,500,249 | 2.5% |
| Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | $1,264,542 | 2.1% |
Top Waste Management Companies by Revenue Growth
In the last three fiscal years, GFL Environmental lead ahead among its peers in the waste management industry with a 21.44% CAGR in revenues.
Meanwhile, Casella Waste Systems leads in boosting its year-over-year annual revenue growth of 16.54% from 2022-2023.
Clean Harbors takes the number two spot in 3yr revenue CAGR with 19.82%, while trailing behind is Casella Waste Systems and Republic Services with 17.75% and 13.80% 3yr CAGR, respectively.
| Company | 3yr CAGR | 1yr Growth YOY |
| GFL Environmental, Inc. | 21.44% | 11.15% |
| Clean Harbors, Inc. | 19.82% | 4.69% |
| Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | 17.75% | 16.54% |
| Republic Services, Inc. | 13.80% | 10.76% |
| Waste Connections, Inc. | 13.78% | 11.23% |
| Waste Management, Inc. | 10.31% | 3.70% |
Key Takeaway
The data above shows that the revenues of top waste management companies have remained resilient over the past three fiscal years, albeit not growing as fast as those of other hot industries. Continuous core price increases, M&A, and cost optimizations have benefited these companies. Fuel surcharges boosted revenues last year, while this year remains to be seen as a recycling commodity, and RNG prices have come down.
Top Waste Management Companies by Earnings (EPS) Growth
In the last three fiscal years, Waste Connections saw the highest 3 year annual compounded growth rate of 55.96% in earnings per share.
The results of the publicly traded waste management companies below are mixed. Some experienced a sharp downturn in EPS while others steadily rose.
Among the companies in the above graph, Republic Services had the highest 1-year EPS YOY growth rate of 16.63%
The list’s highest 3-year EPS CAGR companies are Waste Connections at 55.96%, Clean Harbors at 42.14%, and Republic Services at 21.90%.
| Company | 3yr EPS CAGR | 1yr EPS YOY |
| Waste Connections | 55.96% | -8.95% |
| Clean Harbors | 42.14% | -8.07% |
| Republic Services | 21.90% | 16.63% |
| Waste Management | 17.15% | 5.01% |
| Casella Waste Systems | -37.23% | -55.26% |
| GFL Environmental | -65.25% | -120.41% |
Waste Management Companies Revenue, Earnings and Stock Forecast (Quarter ending Q3 2023)
| Company | YOY EPS Forecast |
| Waste Management | 13.84% |
| Republic Services | 8.55% |
| Waste Connections | 13.23% |
| GFL Environmental | -26.85% |
Waste Management (WM) Revenue, Earnings, and Stock Forecast
Waste Management’s revenue over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $20.4 billion. Waste Management’s earnings (Net Income) over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $2.3 billion.
The Wall Street consensus for Waste Management’s EPS (earnings per share) projection for the next quarter is $1.49. The company’s TTM (trailing twelve months) Earnings Per Share was $5.70 as of the quarter ending December 30, 2023.
Waste Management is expected to see an expansion in earnings per share of 13.84% YOY in the next quarter based on the consensus of stock market analyst forecasts.
Republic Services (RSG) Revenue, Earnings, and Stock Forecast
Republic Services’ revenue over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $15.0 billion. Republic Services’ earnings (Net Income) over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $1.7 billion.
The Wall Street consensus for Republic Services’ EPS (earnings per share) projection for the next quarter is $1.35. The company’s TTM (trailing twelve months) Earnings Per Share was $5.50 as of the quarter ending December 30, 2023.
According to the consensus of stock market analyst forecasts, Republic Services’s earnings per share are expected to expand 8.55% YOY in the next quarter.
Waste Connections (WCN) Revenue, Earnings, and Stock Forecast
Waste Connections’ revenue over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $8.0 billion. Waste Connections’ earnings (Net Income) over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $0.8 billion.
The Wall Street consensus for Waste Connections’ EPS (earnings per share) projection for the next quarter is $1.01. The company’s TTM (trailing twelve months) Earnings Per Share was $3.00 as of the quarter ending December 30, 2023.
Waste Connections is expected to see an expansion in earnings per share of 13.23% YOY in the next quarter based on the consensus of stock market analyst forecasts.
GFL Environmental (GFL) Revenue, Earnings, and Stock Forecast
GFL Environmental’s revenue over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $5.7 billion USD. GFL Environmental’s earnings (Net Income) over the latest Trailing Twelve Month period was $0.034 billion USD.
The Wall Street consensus for GFL Environmental’s EPS (earnings per share) projection for the next quarter is $0.04. The company’s TTM (trailing twelve months) Earnings Per Share was $0.10 as of the quarter ending December 30, 2023.
Based on the consensus of stock market analyst forecasts, GFL Environmental is expected to see a contraction in earnings per share of -26.85% YOY in the next quarter.
Methodology
All data mentioned in this article was sourced from publicly available filings and releases and processed by investment newsletter provider Sather Research, LLC.
Stock forecasts and analyst consensus EPS growth estimates were sourced from data provided by Seeking Alpha.
Contact Seoshin Chil at [email protected] for any further commentary, concerns, questions, or feedback. Alternatively, you can get in touch with the company during business hours through our contact page, or call 888-978-1348 from Monday – Friday; 9AM EST – 5:00 PM EST.
Seoshin Chil
Seoshin is an active sailor in offshore windfarm vessels but has a passion for studying great businesses and investing in them. Being always at sea does not stop him from doing so!
